Posted by: andrew1906 | July 28, 2008

It’s a BUMP, baby!!!

Most of you have shared my glee as we’ve watched a junior senator from Illionios travel the globe and look more presidential that the man who currently holds the office. As Barack sat with foreign leaders, visibily commanding the respect of heads of state and the adoration of the world’s citizens, the senior senator from Arizona wandered around a supermarket and pouted about the excessive media coverage of Senator Obama’s trip.

The coverage of a trip he goaded Sen. Obama into taking.

Of course, he didn’t have anything to do because of the trip to the oil rig in Lousiana that was cancelled due to.. well… an oil spill (this, by the way, is one of the reasons that John McCain of 2000, the John McCain I LIKED, was against offshore drilling).

The biggest question as we came down from the high of these week is, would this help him back home? The answers seemed mixed, as new polls show John McCain closing the lead in a handful of battleground states (Coloroda, Michigan, and Wisconsin – the evaporation of a previously held 17-point lead this most disconcerting, there). But, some good news – Barack has opened up a national lead in Gallup’s tracking poll that appears to be a pattern.

On Thursday, after months of a 2-4 point lead, Sen. Obama opened up a 6-point lead nationally against Sen. McCain. I’ve been watching closely, as this could be a day or two day aberration (as we saw in June after Clinton stepped out of the race). But on  Friday, the lead jumped to 7, and yesterday, the lead jumped to 9 points. We now have a bump! It’s nice to see up approaching the 10 point lead we all know he should have.

There are a few things to keep in mind:

1. Nothing matters until September. I’m excited because I like a horse race – but I’m excited the way you get excited in a Finals game when your team takes the lead 5 minutes into the first half. That’s great – but call me in the 4th. After the conventions, and the country comes back from vacation and begins to engage in the campaign, and the debates start and the 527s gear up for the home stretch, that’s when these polls will matter.

2. National polls don’t matter – remember that at the end of the day, the election is not a popular vote, it’s an electoral college vote. So, pay much more attention to the state by state polls on Real Clear Politics than any national polls. And, as per point #1, even that doesn’t matter, as evidenced by Wisconsin.

3. A bump is a bump – it’s unlikely that that this lead will be sustained until November, and there’s a great degree of fluctionation in these numbers that we can expect. But for now, the McCain campaign has to scrambled and play defense, and time is against them – so that’s a good thing.


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