Posted by: andrew1906 | June 23, 2008

Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls

Everyone,

For all you junkies out there, I think this will help you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

I typically look at Gallup’s tracking poll every day (if anyone has a Windows Vista gadget out there that can pull this polling data, let me know). But this page will give you a neat summary of all of the polls.

It’s a bit odd how wildly some of these polls different. In every one, Obama’s up (and, I might add, has been up since Senator Clinton suspended her campaign) – but by wildy different margins. Gallup has him up by about 2 points, within the margin of error (meaning tied), but Newsweek has him up 15 points. Very interesting – it means that we probably are leading, but not clear how much.

Pay attention to the Date and the Sample. The dates are helpful because they show whether or not the polls happened before or after a significant event – for instance, I threw out all of the polls that occurred before Senator Clinton suspended her campaign. The sample is the number of voters polled (LV means likely voters, RV means registered voters). Though it may seem like the more people sampled, the better – this isn’t actually necessarily true. More important are the sampling methods used and the stength of the sample itself – how representative it is of the population.

I’m loving this.

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Responses

  1. What else is interesting is that in the past, before April, McCain was winning half or so of the polls. Now, it is all Obama. That’s a good sign, as long as that support materializes in November.

    btw, if you’re into polls, ABC has a story about predicting votes based on the voter’s view of race.

    http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=5202366&page=1

  2. I was thinking about posting my own informal poll that has a 100% margin of error. I think that I could at least compete with surveyusa.


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