Posted by: andrew1906 | June 18, 2008

Real Clear Politics – State by State Polling

OK,

 

Take a look at:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

 

This looks like the best electoral map thus far, and it appears to be using up to date polling. The only problem is that the Real Clear Politics point spread is based on the average of polls. So, it’s misleading – take Florida, for instance, with 27 electoral votes that currently is leaning red according to the RCP average. A closer look shows that the latest Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by 4 points. The problem is that RCP is averaging in polls that took place in March and April, when Clinton was still in the race. So, right now, RCP has the following states as red or only light blue when the latest and only polls without Clinton in the race show Obama with a lead beyond the margin of error:

 

·         Ohio (latest poll has him up 6 points)

·         Pennsylvania – latest poll has him up 12 points

·         Florida – latest poll has him up 4 points

 

Keep an eye on Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Indiani, and Pennsylvania. If McCain can hold down the states Bush won in 2004 and get 3/5 of these states, he’s the president, and given his limited resources, these are the states I think he’s going to target.

 

But even still, right Barack has more electoral votes, and if you click on No Toss Up States (this basically allocates all states, even if the polling is within the margin of error), we have 272 electoral votes – and we need 270 to win. Basically, if the election is held today, we win.

 

Enjoy.

 

D

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