Everyone,

Take a look at:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

I’ve been working out the math. So, take a look at it. Right now, Barack is up 136 pledged Delegates. Let’s assume we take Hawaii and Wisconsin average of 60%-40% – that nets us about 24 delegates, which brings our lead to 160.

*Hint – you can figure out the net delegates awarded to a candidate by multiplying the spread by the total delegates. So, if a state has 200 delegates, and Obama beats Hillary 60%-40%, multiplying the 20% spread by 200 votes gives you 40 extra delegates – Obama gets 120, Hillary gets 80.*

Now – using this math, going into March 4, there are 444 delegates at stake. Here’s a couple scenarios where Hillary can win this thing.

She has to beat us out on all 4 states 60%-40% or so, which would add 88 delegates to her count. Then she’d only be down 72. Then, there are about 747 delegates remaining in the race to convention. She could put up numbers that looked like, when averaged out, a 55%-45% victory (meaning, Barack could win state 1 by 10%, but she’d win state 2 by 20% – net 10% spread). At that point, she’d overtake our pledged delegates.

-or-

She could only beat us 55-44% on March 4^{th}, but then she’d really have to average something like a 60%-40% on the remaining post-March 4 states to get past us on pledged delegates.

Now, these are highly improbable scenarios, which is why David Plouffe (Obama’s campaign manager) is already on conference calls telling people “it’s next to impossible for Clinton to gain a delegate lead.” But – this is why March 4^{th} is so important. If she loses either Ohio or Texas, *either one,* or wins them only marginally, she won’t have enough net delegates to really eat into Barack’s lead (think about it – if she loses Ohio by 5%, but wins Texas by 20%, then that’s only a **net 36 delegates)** . She needs to come away from March 4^{th} with at least 70-80 delegates more than Barack to even have a prayer of overtaking him. And, even then, she’s got to make up the remaining 55-60 delegates in the later states, which will take a lot of money and a lot of luck.

So, on March 4^{th}, she’s got to beat him *convincingly *to really have a chance. For instance, winning all 4 states( Rhode Island and Vermont) by 5% would give her only an additional 22 delegates… if she did that, she would have to make up a 138 delegate deficit, which would require something like a 58%-42% *net win on the remaining states. *

So, on March 4^{th} we might find out who the nominee is. If Barack wins Ohio or Texas, it will be virtually mathematically impossible for Hillary to overtake his pledged delegates. He’ll be the nominee. More than likely, Dean and the DNC will step in at that point and try to broker a deal – maybe offer her a Senate Majority leader post or something. But if Hillary does pull out double-digit wins reminiscent of Cali/New York, then we’ve got to tool up and make sure we win, or damn near tie, the rest of the states.

Note that I’m purposely focusing on pledged delegates here, because I believe that there’s no way the Democratic party would give her a nomination via superdelegates if the popular vote had been won by Barack (it’d be suicide, fracture the party, and hand the White House to McCain).

D

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