Posted by: andrew1906 | October 24, 2008

We should all band together to defeat Michele Bachmann

Maybe I’m a bit of a junkie, but I just gave $50 to this El Tinklenberg. He’s running in the Minnesota 6th against Michele Bachmann, the idiot pol who got on Hardball and called Barack anti-American. I call her an idiot because she, like most of the GOP, seems tone deaf to the reality that these types of friviolous, baseless partisan attacks that seek to exploit the simple-minded predisposition of of the uneducated, unthinking masses with “He doesn’t love America” arguments while avoiding the issues isn’t working. One need only look at Barack and McCain’s comparative favorables after two weeks of trying to paint our nominee as a terrorist sympathizer. Since she did that, this guy raised $1.4 m ($50 of that coming from me), and the GOP Congressional Campaign Finance Committee has pulled the ads from her district while the DCCC (flush with cash) has doubled down.
 
You guys should put $5 or $10 into this guys campaign, for several reasons:
 
a) His opponent talked shmack about Barack, and you simply don’t get to do that
b) It’s yet another House seat in what should be an overwhelming majority in Congress
c) She represents the exact sort of divisive, with us- or against us- type of poliitics that is causing the GOP to crater in this cycle, and a message needs to be sent that the country is ready to move past this.
 
Just my opinion.
Posted by: andrew1906 | July 28, 2008

It’s a BUMP, baby!!!

Most of you have shared my glee as we’ve watched a junior senator from Illionios travel the globe and look more presidential that the man who currently holds the office. As Barack sat with foreign leaders, visibily commanding the respect of heads of state and the adoration of the world’s citizens, the senior senator from Arizona wandered around a supermarket and pouted about the excessive media coverage of Senator Obama’s trip.

The coverage of a trip he goaded Sen. Obama into taking.

Of course, he didn’t have anything to do because of the trip to the oil rig in Lousiana that was cancelled due to.. well… an oil spill (this, by the way, is one of the reasons that John McCain of 2000, the John McCain I LIKED, was against offshore drilling).

The biggest question as we came down from the high of these week is, would this help him back home? The answers seemed mixed, as new polls show John McCain closing the lead in a handful of battleground states (Coloroda, Michigan, and Wisconsin – the evaporation of a previously held 17-point lead this most disconcerting, there). But, some good news – Barack has opened up a national lead in Gallup’s tracking poll that appears to be a pattern.

On Thursday, after months of a 2-4 point lead, Sen. Obama opened up a 6-point lead nationally against Sen. McCain. I’ve been watching closely, as this could be a day or two day aberration (as we saw in June after Clinton stepped out of the race). But on  Friday, the lead jumped to 7, and yesterday, the lead jumped to 9 points. We now have a bump! It’s nice to see up approaching the 10 point lead we all know he should have.

There are a few things to keep in mind:

1. Nothing matters until September. I’m excited because I like a horse race – but I’m excited the way you get excited in a Finals game when your team takes the lead 5 minutes into the first half. That’s great – but call me in the 4th. After the conventions, and the country comes back from vacation and begins to engage in the campaign, and the debates start and the 527s gear up for the home stretch, that’s when these polls will matter.

2. National polls don’t matter – remember that at the end of the day, the election is not a popular vote, it’s an electoral college vote. So, pay much more attention to the state by state polls on Real Clear Politics than any national polls. And, as per point #1, even that doesn’t matter, as evidenced by Wisconsin.

3. A bump is a bump – it’s unlikely that that this lead will be sustained until November, and there’s a great degree of fluctionation in these numbers that we can expect. But for now, the McCain campaign has to scrambled and play defense, and time is against them – so that’s a good thing.

Posted by: andrew1906 | July 15, 2008

NAJEE ALI: An open letter to Rev. Jesse Jackson, Sr.

July 10, 2008

Rev Jackson, your vulgar tirade caught on tape by Fox News where you said you wanted to cut Barack Obama’s nuts off and accusing him of talking down to Black folks by giving moral lectures at churches is the last straw for me and a growing number of African Americans who are outraged at your comments.

There are many Blacks across the nation, myself included, who are appreciative for the work and contributions you have made in your civil rights career. But at this point, you’re hurting Black America and Obama.

In September 2007 it was clear that you were frustrated by Obama, when you stated in an interview in South Carolina that Obama needs to stop acting white, because you felt he was not engaged in the Jena 6 movement enough to your liking.

Rev Jackson your continued verbal attacks on Obama are unwarranted it’s as if you’re jealous that Obama has eclipsed you and both your campaigns for the Democratic nomination by actually preparing to win it as the 2008 presumptive nominee.

For years you have been criticized as an ambulance chaser and opportunist. Many of Dr. King’s insiders and aides say that King did not trust you. 40 years ago in Memphis as King lay dying from an assassin’s bullet your first thought and action was to smear your shirt with Dr. King’s blood.

You then proceeded to appear in Chicago the next day on several news programs wearing the same shirt you deliberately smeared with his blood as if you were the heir of King’s movement. Obama’s recent comments about Black fathers not abandoning their children and accepting moral responsibility in our lives is a lesson you apparently needed to learn when you were younger. If you had, it may not have caused you to cheat on your wife and father a child out of wedlock with a former staffer.

Maybe that’s what really bothered you about Obama’s message to the church that Black fathers should be responsible for their children; you certainly haven’t been.

Living in Los Angeles I have watched your ten year old daughter Ashley Laverne Jackson grow up. Over the years I have had the pleasure to spend several holidays with your daughter including Christmas, her birthday parties and other milestones in her life. I will never turn my back on Ashley her mom and their family. It’s about providing friendship, support and love to them while you have been missing in action.

Your daughter has never traveled or taken a trip with you, you have an annual birthday party in Beverly Hills every year where your entire family is welcome but your youngest child has only attended it once. She has had very little contact with her siblings and has never even met her big brother Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr, who apparently doesn’t want anything to do with her. And allegedly (I believe it to be true ), he was the one to leak the scandal to the media concerning your affair. Now don’t get me wrong, Obama is not above reproach. He is a politician and is fair game to be fairly criticized by you or anyone else. But to personally attack Obama is crossing the line. Obama is not
talking down to Black people; he wants you and other dead beat dads to spend time and care for your children properly. The destruction of the Black family and absentee fathers is a major problem in our community.

It’s a problem that King spoke out and fought against. 40 years after King’s murder I can see why King didn’t trust you. If you can’t and won’t sincerely help Obama in this historic run then at least stop attacking him. Listen to Obama’s message of being a responsible father and start taking care of your daughter Ashley.

Najee Ali
http://www.islamichope.org

Posted by: andrew1906 | June 25, 2008

The Tax Myth – Will Democrats Raise Your Taxes?

Time and time again I hear this misconception – the Democrats (Obama) are going to raise our taxes!!! If John McCain becomes president, then… we’ll pay less taxes!

Well, from the Washington Post: (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/09/ST2008060900950.html)

According to a new analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are both proposing tax plans that would result in cuts for most American families. Obama’s plan gives the biggest cuts to those who make the least, while McCain would give the largest cuts to the very wealthy. For the approximately 147,000 families that make up the top 0.1 percent of the income scale, the difference between the two plans is stark. While McCain offers a $269,364 tax cut, Obama would raise their taxes, on average, by $701,885 – a difference of nearly $1 million.

McCain vs. Obama Tax Plan

And, in case you think that one source is not valid, take a look at:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news/economy/candidates_taxproposals_tpc/

John McCain will lower everyone’s taxes, but unless you make more than $226,000 per year, your taxes get lowered a lot less than the wealthy. Under Senator Obama’s plan, mortal people like you an I (that make between $37,000 and $111,000 per year) will see more of a tax break with Obama than with McCain!!!

It’s this Karl Rovian misconception, that all to often goes unchallenged by cable news pundits, that somehow John McCain is going to cut your taxes. Reminds me of the notion that Saddam Hussein caused 9/11. Thankfully, the Internet continues to provide us a means to debunk the inane claims of the ridiculous right.

Posted by: andrew1906 | June 24, 2008

Wanted: Obama surrogates with some grit

Since the early days of the primary, when I watched Obama and Clinton surrogates battling for the moral high ground on the cable news shows, I’ve been fascinated with our seeming inability to find and utilize quality surrogates that can articulately and persuasively communicate campaign messages.

It first hit me while watching Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania, make a case for why Florida should be counted. It struck me as a ridiculous argument, but what struck me even more was relative weakness of the dissent from our surrogate, who I believe was Tom Daschle, in the face of such a preposterous argument. In fact, I remember thinking that had I not been paying close attention, Rendell – through the sheer vociferousness of his discourse, would have convinced me of his position.

Week after week, I sat thrugh Gov. Rendell, Howard Wolfson, Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D-Ohio), James Carville, Kiki Mclean pummel those brave yet unprepared souls sent into battle on MSNBC and CNN. I thought that perhaps the Clinton brand, it’s inevitability unchallenged before January 3, that had claimed the allegiance of the party warhorses before Obama Nation arrived. I figured, once the primary was over, we’d inherit all of those surrogates and things would get better.

No so. Yesterday I watched Carly Fiorina, the embattled former HP CEO once named the most powerful businesswoman in America, decimate Bill Richardson on Face the Nation. I mean, it was embarrassing – when she was finished, I wanted to vote for John McCain.

Unable to stomach the contrast in preparedness and diction between Fiorina and Richardson, I turned the channel, hoping to find some respite in the normally feisty Joe Biden battling Linsey Graham on Meet the Press. To my chargin, I turned the Tivo on just in time to witness Sen. Graham making a fool out of Sen. Biden. Sen. Graham was confident, self assured, articulate, and wore none of the – well, shame – befitting a man representing a party that has presided over the worst years in American foreign and domestic policy since Nixon. Joe Biden seem unequipped, his arguments lacking clarity and poignancy, and seemed on the defensive about – campaign finance? Are you kidding?  I was waiting for the roundhouse punch – where Joe Biden tells the guy across the table that the candidate who secured a loan using a promise of public financing and then illegally backed out of that financing is in one, big, glass house! It never came! There was stutterring, looking down, and Sen. Grahams wildest assertions – that Obama would do anything to get elected – were met with what looked like pouting, with Sen. Biden sticking out his lower lip and saying “that’s not true, Lindsey.” Instead of pointingout that Sen. McCain’s brazen reversal of his core positions – Roe v Wade, offshore drilling, tax cuts, immigration – represent much more of an indication of ones desire overtaking one’s conscience than a Senator who decides he wants to opt out of public financing, he shrank away from the debate! At one point, Joe Biden actually conceded the premise of Grahamn’s attack – that Obama “flip flopped.” I mean – what kind of surrogate is this?

First of all, why is the campaign sending mental lightweights out there with people like Carly Fiorina and Lindsey Graham? Are you telling me that throughout the millions of people that have supported, funded, and canvased for the Obama campaign, we can’t find one articulate soul who looks good on TV and can throw a punch? Not one? Can we start an online YouTube contest or something??? Damnit I’ll get on TV and correct some of these cats!

We have to get it together. Elections are decided on the fringes, and these surrogates matter insofar as they carry our message to the masses. If we can’t recruit some of the old Clintonites, for God’s sake, let’s make new surrogates! But for now, let’s put Daschle, Kerry, Richardson, Biden, Dyson, and the rest of these guys in a drawer!

Let’s everyone calm down.

Did Obama “flip-flop” on this campaign finance? Yes. Should anyone care? No. Does anyone care? No.

Read More…

Posted by: andrew1906 | June 23, 2008

Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls

Everyone,

For all you junkies out there, I think this will help you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

I typically look at Gallup’s tracking poll every day (if anyone has a Windows Vista gadget out there that can pull this polling data, let me know). But this page will give you a neat summary of all of the polls. Read More…

Posted by: andrew1906 | June 20, 2008

Newsweek has Obama up by 15 points

Sounds like good news, right?

Well, I suppose it is, just a few things you’ll want to keep in mind. Read More…

Posted by: andrew1906 | June 20, 2008

Vice Presidential Candidates – Don’t Believe the Hype

Never underestimate the interest the mainstream media has on identifying, highlighting, and overhyping conflict. No one watches Days of our Lives unless someone is sleeping with someone else’s husband. And no one watches cable news until some kind of conflict is brewing. Read More…

Posted by: andrew1906 | June 18, 2008

Real Clear Politics – State by State Polling

OK,

 

Take a look at:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

 

This looks like the best electoral map thus far, and it appears to be using up to date polling. The only problem is that the Real Clear Politics point spread is based on the average of polls. So, it’s misleading – take Florida, for instance, with 27 electoral votes that currently is leaning red according to the RCP average. A closer look shows that the latest Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by 4 points. The problem is that RCP is averaging in polls that took place in March and April, when Clinton was still in the race. So, right now, RCP has the following states as red or only light blue when the latest and only polls without Clinton in the race show Obama with a lead beyond the margin of error:

 

·         Ohio (latest poll has him up 6 points)

·         Pennsylvania – latest poll has him up 12 points

·         Florida – latest poll has him up 4 points

 

Keep an eye on Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Indiani, and Pennsylvania. If McCain can hold down the states Bush won in 2004 and get 3/5 of these states, he’s the president, and given his limited resources, these are the states I think he’s going to target.

 

But even still, right Barack has more electoral votes, and if you click on No Toss Up States (this basically allocates all states, even if the polling is within the margin of error), we have 272 electoral votes – and we need 270 to win. Basically, if the election is held today, we win.

 

Enjoy.

 

D

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